Packing it In - RPI Chase

As mentioned earlier, I was talking about setting realistic goals amongst handicapping and calling it off once I reached those profit goals. Specifically the reason for this was because the RPI was very streaky throughout the first half of the season. The final record for the 2012 season:

RPI Chase 2012 (March - July): (36%) +59.36 Units

The goal was 20% yet the final chase we had 5 games with all "A1" games cashing out. A perfect way to the end the season.

The reason why im stopping...

Here are the documented trends on my gains and losses throughout the first half of the season:

(5/10/12: 78%) -> (5/22/12): 39%) -> (5/29/12): 17%) -> (5/31/12): 31%) -> (6/25/12): 3%) -> (7/15/12): 36%)

I'm happy to pack it in and walk away with these profits. For next season, I plan on risking less of my bankroll and looking to do an AB chase and play C to regain losses.

Long Overdue Post

It's been a while since I wrote a blog post. I'm slowly starting to realize that I am more of a 140 character guy on Twitter. Last night finally brought us back into the profit zone with the RPI Chase. We were put into a deep hole with a few big losses occurring in a 3 week span but like I said, I would play it slow and be more selective and eventually will come out on top. The goal is still a 20% ROI and once that is met, I will pack it in for the season.

RPI YTD: [71-11-0] +1.56 Units

On another note, I started an emailing list of plays that I tail from specific handicappers. The feedback has been very positive and I thought it would be good to finally open it up to anyone who is interested. As always mentioned, I never take credit for these picks since they are not my own. I merely just take the time to dig through the internet to find any handicappers that stand out and follow specific wagers. You can email me at: Transparentbetting@gmail.com

Some of the bets placed have been recorded on WagerMinds which has been doing fairly decent. Currently ranked at 106. Not every play is on there but I do put my bets up from time to time.

As of right now I am tailing SportsCheetah and TortiousTroll. If you haven't checked it out yet, look for ITGTEAM on Twitter, they are doing some great things and those two handicappers have been showing consistency throughout the season so far.

The RPI Result In The Month Of May

(Data Taken from Covers) [plays are only for official RPI not my unofficial capped plays)

May RPI Record

3-May-12,A,Yankees,0.542,-130,V116,LOSS,

3-May-12,A,Toronto,0.56,119,V98,WIN,

4-May-12,B,Yankees,0.542,-160,V116,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Toronto,0.56,111,V98,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Texas,0.68,-143,V89,LOSS,

4-May-12,A,Tampa Bay,0.68,-180,H77,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.68,-136,V71,LOSS,

5-May-12,B,Texas,0.68,-144,V77,WIN,

5-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.68,-130,V71,WIN,

10-May-12,A,Toronto,0.548,-138,V104,WIN,

11-May-12,A,Toronto,0.548,-128,V104,LOSS,

11-May-12,A,Texas,0.656,-141,H101,WIN,

11-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.645,-159,V57,WIN,

11-May-12,A,WhiteSox,0.469,-145,H63,WIN ,v1

12-May-12,B,Toronto,0.548,-136,V104,WIN ,

13-May-12,Z,Texas,0.656,-127,H101,WIN,

14-May-12,A,Texas,0.657,-180,H90,LOSS,

14-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.676,-147,H62,LOSS,

15-May-12,B,Texas,0.653,-220,H101,LOSS,

15-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.676,-119,H62,WIN,

16-May-12,C,Texas,0.653,-227,H101,WIN,

16-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.676,-105,H62,LOSS,

17-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.676,116,H62,WIN,

21-May-12,A,Yankees,0.525,-157,H52,LOSS,

21-May-12,A,Miami,0.503,-155,H34,WIN,

21-May-12,A,Baltimore,0.545,102,H48,LOSS,

22-May-12,B,Yankees,0.525,-169,H52,WIN,

22-May-12,B,Baltimore,0.545,107,H48,WIN,

24-May-12,A,Mets,0.522,-136,H56,LOSS,

25-May-12,B,Mets,0.522,-113,H56,WIN,

25-May-12,A,Cincinnati,0.517,-154,H48,LOSS,

25-May-12,A,Baltimore,0.545,-123,H73,WIN,

26-May-12,B,Cincinnati,0.517,-147,H48,WIN,

28-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.52,-106,H40,LOSS,

29-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.52,-138,H40,LOSS,

30-May-12,C,Dodgers,0.52,-156,H40,LOSS,

A = 9 B = 9 C = 1 SERIES 19 - 1

Looking at this data, "A" games hit under 50%. Because there has been a series loss, you actually would have been a lot more profitable playing just B/C games rather than the whole 3 game chase. Perhaps its more beneficial to play it like this throughout the rest of the season. I remember last year during the month of May-July, the RPI was hitting at a high percentage of "A" games but it seems that this hasn't been the case as of late.

I'll start playing only B/C if this trend continues with the exception of finding great value/edge on an "A" game.

OR

Chase A/B games and only bet 1x (or whatever your initial wager size is in the first place) on C games.

With the May record, assuming the average line of each is -200, if you were betting each series to win 1x and chased every game, you would be down approximately 5 units. Chasing A/B games and only wagering 1x on C games to cushion some losses - you would find yourself up over 3 units.

Something to keep in mind as making adjustments throughout the course of the season is key to long term success in profiting.

The Harsh Reality of Sports Betting, And My Plan of Action.

The harsh reality of sports betting; hot streaks and cold streaks - or more so, hitting a wall and going through regression. My plan of action to reduce this was already explained in the previous post, but now I have real numbers to work with.

As many of you know, I hit the worst regression this week; losing two C3's and two C2's. It could of been worse, and I could of lost the TAM and OAK in a 3 game chase, at the same time, it could of been better and just went through losing the one official play which was LAD.

Losing these 4 series went from a 32% return to plummeting -24% return - a 56% loss out of those 4 series.

I started off hot going close to a 70% return, dropping to 17%, coming back up to a 32% and pacing well to all of the sudden hitting a brick wall and standing at -24%.

My plan now for the rest of the season is to reach a 20% ROI and call it quits. I'll still be giving out plays but once I reach that goal, I'm gonna be humble with having a profitable season (which I hope happens) and walk away with those gains.

I spent the last week backtracking how i've done in each sport that I bet and finally compiled the final numbers on the returns im looking for and WALKING AWAY once I reached these goals:

MLB: 25% (Using 1% of my BR on the RPI)
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI

TOTAL: 85% ROI

I'm hoping these numbers fall through together. Keep in mind those numbers for MLB are for next season.

How I Use The RPI "System"

I've gotten the same question asked almost everyday by different people about what the numerical and alphabetical combination represents for the RPI. I think its about time I just had it in this blog post so its a lot less stressful to deal with trying to explain it to each individual person.

The letters and numbers are literally as simple as:

Letters = The game number within the series (i.e the 2nd matchup in a the 3gm series would be "B", etc).
Numbers= The wager number its at using the martingale system. 

The reason I have these variables is because there will be times i'll play the second game in a series and start chasing it from there rather than playing the first game, and so on.

MLB Update

We had a good weekend going 5-0 on both official and unofficial plays. A much needed week considering the huge downfall of regression that occurred early on in May. I made some adjustment as to focusing a lot of my attention on handicapping my leans and than trying to find an edge by chasing the last 2 games if they were to lose the first. From what I remember, the "A" games have been hitting at low 50% since the system officially started. Not to say that I wont be playing many "A" games, but I am merely trying to reduce risk on losing a 3 game series and by trying to maximize profit by taking advantage of a large handful of games across the board.

The current record stands at:
MLB RPI YTD: [60-7-0] +53.24 (32% ROI)


I was sitting close to 40% ROI early last week but as many of you know, I lost the 3gm with ATL. I've been down 7% from last week, but considering that I lost a series - losing 7% in a week is a gift (thanks to money management).

It really goes to show how much of a roller coaster ride this "system" is. For next year, I plan on risking 2% and looking for a return of 40% and stopping once I reach that goal. Going to start to setting realistic goals in each and every sport that I handicap. More of that will be explained in the future.

Looking ahead and hoping for a good week.

"THE JOY OF THE CHASE"

Check out my write up for Todd Fuhrman, explaining in short how the RPI attributes as a guideline to handicapping series in MLB.

Look for more contributions to Todd's Take in the near future.


Read it here: http://www.toddstake.com/2012/05/23/the-joy-of-the-chase/

Some Turbulence in MLB

The last week and a half has been a huge downfall in the MLB system:

PHI (B/C) LOSS

STL (A/B/C) LOSS

TEX (A/B) LOSS

Normally at this point like many following this system on Covers, you would be out from last week's losses  as it would have taken all of your bankroll. 

However, I managed to still be up from what i know around a 10% ROI (need to double check this). Those 3 big losses haven't dipped into my actual investment. Not happy about this as I was close to a 80% ROI just 2 weeks ago but like any system, there is gonna be burst of large gains and big losses. 

The key to this is staying calm and not chase big losses which is the plan throughout the rest of the season. 30,000$ doesn't seem realistic at this point - not to say I lost all hope. Merely I am being realistic about this and adjusting to streaks. 

Lets be honest, anywhere between 60-90% ROI by the end of the season will be extraordinary. Moving on from these losses and looking ahead to a profitable season.  

MLB Update

Its been a crazy 5 weeks so far since i've officially started the system. Recorded a great night with all of the "A" chases gong 5/7 with 2 pending:

Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals. 

Still working the numbers via handicapping if I wanna play either. The match up tomorrow is greatly more in favour for these two clubs but than again, if either win tonight... Should I be playing them tomorrow as well - or will that contradict the system to much? Follow on Twitter to get up to the minute with my picks.

MLB YTD: [48-4-0] +133.10 Units