WagerMinds: TransparentBets

I had a WagerMinds account previously that I used but didn't take it as serious as I mentioned before as I tried to incorporate chase, leans, etc. I'm starting fresh with this new account so its easier for people to get an idea how the overall year is going. Keep in mind though that it isn't very accurate since they don't offer certain props t(i.e team totals in MLB that were played frequently).

Follow: http://www.wagerminds.com/Profile/TransparentBets

I am going to track .5% at 2x, 1% at 3x, 1.5% at 4x, 2% at 5x

Behind The Bets: Handicapping To Help Others in Need

In my previous post I noted how I will be following Rance (@behindthebets) on all NBA plays. I came across his website and noticed that he will be giving out all of his picks through his premium membership. Now before you stop reading from there, he is no way a tout. He is asking for a small amount of 50$ for lifetime picks or 10$ a month. Not only will he be providing his full picks but also very insightful information to handicappers.

All the money going towards him is going to a great cause for charity as 100% of all proceeds will be going to the "Am Charity Society" to help kids pay for chemo.

I will not be posting his plays on my blog for obvious reason but will keep documenting his record for NBA. I also respect the touting business (all though he isn't one) so I don't wanna dabble into that.

Here is the link for more information: http://behind-the-bets.com/behind-the-bets-premium-edition-faqs

Once again, I highly suggest everyone to get involved in this as its for a great cause.

Thanks Rance.

Having Second Thoughts

Some great insight I found on Mark's account that I think everyone following should understand.

This leads me to wonder how I will be setting yearly return goals in relation to following a list of handicappers since they all have their own strategies and adjust differently. I'm now debating whether or not I want to stop after reaching a set goal on return, or play throughout the whole season with the chances of being more profitable. Of course, the same can be looked at from either point of view. I will defiantly try and spend the next month looking intro previous records and trends, comparing the first and second half of the season and how each handicapper does.

Finalized List of Sports Bettors

After a roller coaster ride in the first half of the MLB season, I have now focused my attention onto looking ahead to September and narrowing down my list of handicappers that I will be keeping track of and tailing. For the rest of the MLB season, I will be following @OnTheMarkSport. His long term record and consistency leads me to following him throughout the rest on the season and most likely ahead for the 2013 season.

I've spent much of my time digging through the past season records and trends that I have kept track on my spreadsheet. I have decided to leave out NCAAF and focus on NBA, NHL, NFL, NCAAB. All plays will be risking 1% of my bank roll and I wont be playing any pre-season picks. Here is the final list:

NBA:
@behindthebets
@nbacrusher (on NBA totals)

NCAAB:
@Stuckey2

NHL:
@gottiboy19 (NHL Totals)

NFL:
@OnTheMarkSport

MLB:
@OnTheMarkSport

Packing it In - RPI Chase

As mentioned earlier, I was talking about setting realistic goals amongst handicapping and calling it off once I reached those profit goals. Specifically the reason for this was because the RPI was very streaky throughout the first half of the season. The final record for the 2012 season:

RPI Chase 2012 (March - July): (36%) +59.36 Units

The goal was 20% yet the final chase we had 5 games with all "A1" games cashing out. A perfect way to the end the season.

The reason why im stopping...

Here are the documented trends on my gains and losses throughout the first half of the season:

(5/10/12: 78%) -> (5/22/12): 39%) -> (5/29/12): 17%) -> (5/31/12): 31%) -> (6/25/12): 3%) -> (7/15/12): 36%)

I'm happy to pack it in and walk away with these profits. For next season, I plan on risking less of my bankroll and looking to do an AB chase and play C to regain losses.

6/25/12 Recap

We snagged our two "A1" wins for the RPI and with two other plays pending tonight. That brings our record now to:

MLB RPI YTD: [73-11-0] +11.56 UNITS

Don't be fooled by the profit margins. Every chase is 5 units and as mentioned before - I am throwing in the towel once I reach around 20% as I am going to be content with those season profits. I don't want a repeat of June. Therefore, I am looking to close out once I am up around 33 units.

Got a few email about the plays that I send out on a combination of handicappers that I follow along with my own plays. I much rather send them out via email and not Twitter because I find it better to interact one on one with each person on money management, strategies, etc.

I will track this record since I started sending plays out so since 6/13/12 the current record is at:

YTD: 32-30-3 (-2.41%)

Had a big slump that went on for 4 days in a row but looking ahead to steady slow profits throughout the rest of the season. Sample size is small as its only been close to two weeks.

As mentioned before, anyone that would like to be added to the mailing list can just email me at: Transparentbetting@gmail.com

Long Overdue Post

It's been a while since I wrote a blog post. I'm slowly starting to realize that I am more of a 140 character guy on Twitter. Last night finally brought us back into the profit zone with the RPI Chase. We were put into a deep hole with a few big losses occurring in a 3 week span but like I said, I would play it slow and be more selective and eventually will come out on top. The goal is still a 20% ROI and once that is met, I will pack it in for the season.

RPI YTD: [71-11-0] +1.56 Units

On another note, I started an emailing list of plays that I tail from specific handicappers. The feedback has been very positive and I thought it would be good to finally open it up to anyone who is interested. As always mentioned, I never take credit for these picks since they are not my own. I merely just take the time to dig through the internet to find any handicappers that stand out and follow specific wagers. You can email me at: Transparentbetting@gmail.com

Some of the bets placed have been recorded on WagerMinds which has been doing fairly decent. Currently ranked at 106. Not every play is on there but I do put my bets up from time to time.

As of right now I am tailing SportsCheetah and TortiousTroll. If you haven't checked it out yet, look for ITGTEAM on Twitter, they are doing some great things and those two handicappers have been showing consistency throughout the season so far.

The RPI Result In The Month Of May

(Data Taken from Covers) [plays are only for official RPI not my unofficial capped plays)

May RPI Record

3-May-12,A,Yankees,0.542,-130,V116,LOSS,

3-May-12,A,Toronto,0.56,119,V98,WIN,

4-May-12,B,Yankees,0.542,-160,V116,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Toronto,0.56,111,V98,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Texas,0.68,-143,V89,LOSS,

4-May-12,A,Tampa Bay,0.68,-180,H77,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.68,-136,V71,LOSS,

5-May-12,B,Texas,0.68,-144,V77,WIN,

5-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.68,-130,V71,WIN,

10-May-12,A,Toronto,0.548,-138,V104,WIN,

11-May-12,A,Toronto,0.548,-128,V104,LOSS,

11-May-12,A,Texas,0.656,-141,H101,WIN,

11-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.645,-159,V57,WIN,

11-May-12,A,WhiteSox,0.469,-145,H63,WIN ,v1

12-May-12,B,Toronto,0.548,-136,V104,WIN ,

13-May-12,Z,Texas,0.656,-127,H101,WIN,

14-May-12,A,Texas,0.657,-180,H90,LOSS,

14-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.676,-147,H62,LOSS,

15-May-12,B,Texas,0.653,-220,H101,LOSS,

15-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.676,-119,H62,WIN,

16-May-12,C,Texas,0.653,-227,H101,WIN,

16-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.676,-105,H62,LOSS,

17-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.676,116,H62,WIN,

21-May-12,A,Yankees,0.525,-157,H52,LOSS,

21-May-12,A,Miami,0.503,-155,H34,WIN,

21-May-12,A,Baltimore,0.545,102,H48,LOSS,

22-May-12,B,Yankees,0.525,-169,H52,WIN,

22-May-12,B,Baltimore,0.545,107,H48,WIN,

24-May-12,A,Mets,0.522,-136,H56,LOSS,

25-May-12,B,Mets,0.522,-113,H56,WIN,

25-May-12,A,Cincinnati,0.517,-154,H48,LOSS,

25-May-12,A,Baltimore,0.545,-123,H73,WIN,

26-May-12,B,Cincinnati,0.517,-147,H48,WIN,

28-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.52,-106,H40,LOSS,

29-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.52,-138,H40,LOSS,

30-May-12,C,Dodgers,0.52,-156,H40,LOSS,

A = 9 B = 9 C = 1 SERIES 19 - 1

Looking at this data, "A" games hit under 50%. Because there has been a series loss, you actually would have been a lot more profitable playing just B/C games rather than the whole 3 game chase. Perhaps its more beneficial to play it like this throughout the rest of the season. I remember last year during the month of May-July, the RPI was hitting at a high percentage of "A" games but it seems that this hasn't been the case as of late.

I'll start playing only B/C if this trend continues with the exception of finding great value/edge on an "A" game.

OR

Chase A/B games and only bet 1x (or whatever your initial wager size is in the first place) on C games.

With the May record, assuming the average line of each is -200, if you were betting each series to win 1x and chased every game, you would be down approximately 5 units. Chasing A/B games and only wagering 1x on C games to cushion some losses - you would find yourself up over 3 units.

Something to keep in mind as making adjustments throughout the course of the season is key to long term success in profiting.

Who I Plan On Following For The Upcoming Seasons

I decided to make a small blog post of the handicappers that I follow as I am eagerly awaiting for next season in basketball, football, and hockey. The list compiled has been backtracked, as well as looked into with certain plays to be filtered out. Example: With "Indian Cowboy" from Doc's Sports, I only plays the "+" spreads and don't play any games with Alabama.

I will get more into detail later on about specific trends as we get closer to September.

NCAAB:
-@Stuckey2 on all plays including his teasers
- Indian Cowboy "+" spreads only

NBA:
-@nbacrusher on NBA totals
- Indian Cowboy "+" spreads only
-@nropp

NHL:
-@Picks4Profit on NHL Totals

NCAAF:

NFL:

No handicappers set in stone yet for NCAAF or NFL; still working on that. 

Handicappers I am keeping a sharp eye on:

@HeHaithMe: After hearing his podcast, I am very interested to see how well he'll do in the upcoming NFL season. Also a very sharp handicapper in MLB, not just because of his record, but really respect the lines that he plays for bases. I also highly advise everyone to listen to the podcast; his attitude and vision of the game is so refreshing and entertaining.

@Stuckey2: From what I remember, he mentioned NHL being his most profitable sport,  I never tracked his plays down so I have insufficient data on this. But I do know hes very knowledgeable and insightful in hockey.

@behindthebets: Still looking into this for NBA.

@SportsCheetah: I've literally never seen someone pace this long on killing MLB/NBA wagers like he is right now. Defiantly keeping an eye out.

@OnTheMarkSport: Followed him last year on picks here and there on both NCAAF/NFL, needless to say, he saved my ass on a number of occasions. He may very well be the handicapper for me to follow for the upcoming season in football.

Make note that I am not/will never take any credit on the profits made. All credit will always be given/mentioned to the handicappers that I specifically follow. I highly advise as well to look in to the handicappers mentioned above as they are not only smashing the bookies, but providing very helpful and knowledgeable information via Twitter.

The Harsh Reality of Sports Betting, And My Plan of Action.

The harsh reality of sports betting; hot streaks and cold streaks - or more so, hitting a wall and going through regression. My plan of action to reduce this was already explained in the previous post, but now I have real numbers to work with.

As many of you know, I hit the worst regression this week; losing two C3's and two C2's. It could of been worse, and I could of lost the TAM and OAK in a 3 game chase, at the same time, it could of been better and just went through losing the one official play which was LAD.

Losing these 4 series went from a 32% return to plummeting -24% return - a 56% loss out of those 4 series.

I started off hot going close to a 70% return, dropping to 17%, coming back up to a 32% and pacing well to all of the sudden hitting a brick wall and standing at -24%.

My plan now for the rest of the season is to reach a 20% ROI and call it quits. I'll still be giving out plays but once I reach that goal, I'm gonna be humble with having a profitable season (which I hope happens) and walk away with those gains.

I spent the last week backtracking how i've done in each sport that I bet and finally compiled the final numbers on the returns im looking for and WALKING AWAY once I reached these goals:

MLB: 25% (Using 1% of my BR on the RPI)
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI

TOTAL: 85% ROI

I'm hoping these numbers fall through together. Keep in mind those numbers for MLB are for next season.

Setting Realistic Goals

I was sitting outside with a few of my friends who happen to be very knowledgeable and successful within the stock market as they where listening to me vent at the huge margin of loss and bad streak that I went through in the past few weeks, going from 78% ROI to 17% in betting baseball. We started talking about the correlation of sports betting and the stock market - comparing yearly return on investments. I then brought up the question, “What yearly return on investment would you be happy with, in order to walk away satisfied every year?”. Both answered firmly, “20 percent.” I asked why and they merely said “Look at it this way, I double my investments in five years. Fives years.” In my head I started relating it to sports and thinking to myself how easy 20% was for me to reach and surpass. All of the sudden everything clicked in. What if you set realistic goals in the returns that you want by the end of the season, using previous data of your handicapping success to figure out a reasonable percentage.

For someone like me, I like to play across the board in almost every major sport (MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NFL, and NCAAF). Many good handicappers go through hot streaks, with most of their highest profit margin occurring early, or in the middle of the season. What everyone does face is regression. No matter how good of a handicapper you are, with every hot streak is a cold streak waiting right around the corner.

A good strategy that I have come up with is back tracking your record in each and every sport, looking at what your returns where and your highest and lowest return periods. Look at this way, I managed to get close to an 80% ROI in less than 2 months and all of the sudden I hit a few big bumps the past 3 weeks and lost over 60% of my profit returns. Am I ever going to surpass or even come merely close to 80% throughout the rest of the season? Who knows? If I knew this big regression was right around the corner, would I take the 80% and walk away for the rest of the season? Defiantly. A good strategy to avoid this would be to take a step back, look at your past record and yearly profit and set a reasonable return throughout the whole year. Than, look at each sport specifically and divide them so that they all total up to your yearly goal, giving a larger margin for sports that you have a better record in.

Example: Lets make this easy to understand and say your goal is to get 100% in return on your investment. In order, you find out your most profitable sports are MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NCAAF, and NFL. Therefore:

MLB: 40% ROI
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI

Once you’ve reached your goal stop wagering on the sport completely and be content with the profits. This automatically disciplines you from further exhausting your bankroll and from hitting any sort of regression along the way that can diminish your profits by the end of the season. 

How I Use The RPI "System"

I've gotten the same question asked almost everyday by different people about what the numerical and alphabetical combination represents for the RPI. I think its about time I just had it in this blog post so its a lot less stressful to deal with trying to explain it to each individual person.

The letters and numbers are literally as simple as:

Letters = The game number within the series (i.e the 2nd matchup in a the 3gm series would be "B", etc).
Numbers= The wager number its at using the martingale system. 

The reason I have these variables is because there will be times i'll play the second game in a series and start chasing it from there rather than playing the first game, and so on.

MLB Update

We had a good weekend going 5-0 on both official and unofficial plays. A much needed week considering the huge downfall of regression that occurred early on in May. I made some adjustment as to focusing a lot of my attention on handicapping my leans and than trying to find an edge by chasing the last 2 games if they were to lose the first. From what I remember, the "A" games have been hitting at low 50% since the system officially started. Not to say that I wont be playing many "A" games, but I am merely trying to reduce risk on losing a 3 game series and by trying to maximize profit by taking advantage of a large handful of games across the board.

The current record stands at:
MLB RPI YTD: [60-7-0] +53.24 (32% ROI)


I was sitting close to 40% ROI early last week but as many of you know, I lost the 3gm with ATL. I've been down 7% from last week, but considering that I lost a series - losing 7% in a week is a gift (thanks to money management).

It really goes to show how much of a roller coaster ride this "system" is. For next year, I plan on risking 2% and looking for a return of 40% and stopping once I reach that goal. Going to start to setting realistic goals in each and every sport that I handicap. More of that will be explained in the future.

Looking ahead and hoping for a good week.

"THE JOY OF THE CHASE"

Check out my write up for Todd Fuhrman, explaining in short how the RPI attributes as a guideline to handicapping series in MLB.

Look for more contributions to Todd's Take in the near future.


Read it here: http://www.toddstake.com/2012/05/23/the-joy-of-the-chase/

How Do I Bet NFL and NCAAB?

I'm willing to admit that I am terrible at betting both these sports. The NFL is easily my worst sport because I can't get over the hump of creating biased opinions on teams to win. No matter how much effort put in, my last remaining decision on a spread or total is based on gut feeling, whether I realized it at the time or not. One way to see if you have strong opinions from a sports fan perspective is the money management involved. If you're not a flat bettor, you should keep track of all of your bets on a spreadsheet and calculate the percentage of wins categorized by your wager.  Although I HIGHLY recommend to flat bet. 

Example:

1x: 20/30

2x: 10/17

3x: 2/9

Here is the classic term "if its too good to be true, it probably is". A lot of people that track their own plays will realize that their biggest losses are from their biggest wagers. Now as untrue as this sounds, its defiantly right on many levels - but not to say that this applies to every handicapper. I have seen a small handful of cappers do very well on large plays. You see many touts advertise that their biggest plays are hitting 90%, etc, but for the most part, its all just lies and gimmicks to persuade customers. 

So what do you do?

Well, the smart decision would just be to not bet the sport, but as many of us know, thats easier said than done. However, the way I see it is relative to how people go about's in the first step of investing in the stock market in a sense that you back track a company's performance record and see where the strengths and weaknesses are. Many people that tail cappers are too lazy to put the work in to really understand trends in the handicapper that they are putting their money into. 

For me, I compile a list of a small handful of well respected handicappers with a reputable long term record. The record, obviously is the first thing I look at. For me, I could care less about their profit margin, I instead look at the lines they're playing at. 

Lets take for example HeHaithMe (@HeHaithMe ). He currently holds a MLB record of 86-59-6 (59%) which is outstanding. I've seen others that hold a 60% record as well. Why aren't I mentioning them? Because their wins are from plays that can range anywhere between (-170) to (-240), while HeHaithMe has gained my absolute respect as he has wagered over 150 games and wagering games no more than lines surpassing (-125). 

Now, the next thing which is what took me a while to master, is knowing when to fade/tail/or lay off. This is where this blog and my Twitter becomes handy. I compiled a spreadsheet of handicappers, knowing when to lay off when they are on a cold streak, bets to avoid depending on unit size, and teams that they have a bias on. 

I will explain in more further detail as we get closer to next season.

Business Entrepreneur And Making Bets: The Correlation.

A short post as I am currently studying for one of my final exams thats tomorrow morning. I read an article on Forbes.com that caught my attention titled "The Most Dangerous Lies Entrepreneurs Tell Themselves". It's defiantly an interesting read as the writer compares the psychological impulsive actions of individuals that think of short-term gain. He also goes into detail comparing compound interest.

"One example of this is the statement “life is short.” I hear it all the time. I understand why people say it. What they mean is “live life to the fullest.” But we don’t say that. We instead say “life is short.”

Of course, life is not actually short. For most Americans life is actually long (knock on wood). Average male lifespan in the US is 75 and average female lifespan is 80. But, when you internalize, literally, “life is short”, you can lure yourself into behavior that is harmful (especially financially) where you play for the short term when you need to play for the long term. Einstein is famously thought to have said that the most powerful force in the universe is compound interest. I believe that our dual misunderstanding of “life is short” and our inability to appreciate the value of compounding combine to lure people to make very bad investing decisions."


I dont think I need to continue further to see how this behaviour directly relates to my belief of sports betting: thing long term profit, not short term gains (don't make impulsive bets or chase losses). 


Continue reading at: http://www.forbes.com/sites/bruceupbin/2012/05/11/the-most-dangerous-lie-entrepreneurs-tell-themselves/

Who To Follow On Twitter?

Here is a list of well respected handicappers and just overall good sources for all sports betting related news/information:

@Stuckey2
@So_Money_Sports
@ToddFuhrman
@nropp
@SabrVegasWizard
@OnTheMarkSport
@World_Wide_Wob
@JeffGrantSports
@beyondthebets
@AnonymousGamblr
@Bookie_Bash
@ITGlife
@HeHaithMe
@samplethis32
@MrGameHunter