With the NHL lock out it looks like ill only be focusing on NFL, NBA, and NCAAB for the duration of the 12' - 13' season, and until MLB comes around the corner again. Just to refresh everyone following, I will be on BTB for NBA and Stuckey for NCAAB. You need to sign up for Rance's picks therefore, all plays posted on the blog will remain private out of respect for Rance Young. Its a one time 50$ donation which is going to a great cause so there is no need for anyone to not sign up. Stuckey has his plays documented and released via Twitter. It is crucial that you get a book that releases lines EARLY for college ball (bet365). All plays will be weighted as risking 1% of my bankroll.
Lets have another profitable season for basketball...
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Sunday, 7 October 2012
Tuesday, 5 June 2012
Who I Plan On Following For The Upcoming Seasons
I decided to make a small blog post of the handicappers that I follow as I am eagerly awaiting for next season in basketball, football, and hockey. The list compiled has been backtracked, as well as looked into with certain plays to be filtered out. Example: With "Indian Cowboy" from Doc's Sports, I only plays the "+" spreads and don't play any games with Alabama.
I will get more into detail later on about specific trends as we get closer to September.
NCAAB:
-@Stuckey2 on all plays including his teasers
- Indian Cowboy "+" spreads only
NBA:
-@nbacrusher on NBA totals
- Indian Cowboy "+" spreads only
-@nropp
NHL:
-@Picks4Profit on NHL Totals
NCAAF:
NFL:
No handicappers set in stone yet for NCAAF or NFL; still working on that.
Handicappers I am keeping a sharp eye on:
@HeHaithMe: After hearing his podcast, I am very interested to see how well he'll do in the upcoming NFL season. Also a very sharp handicapper in MLB, not just because of his record, but really respect the lines that he plays for bases. I also highly advise everyone to listen to the podcast; his attitude and vision of the game is so refreshing and entertaining.
@Stuckey2: From what I remember, he mentioned NHL being his most profitable sport, I never tracked his plays down so I have insufficient data on this. But I do know hes very knowledgeable and insightful in hockey.
@behindthebets: Still looking into this for NBA.
@SportsCheetah: I've literally never seen someone pace this long on killing MLB/NBA wagers like he is right now. Defiantly keeping an eye out.
@OnTheMarkSport: Followed him last year on picks here and there on both NCAAF/NFL, needless to say, he saved my ass on a number of occasions. He may very well be the handicapper for me to follow for the upcoming season in football.
Make note that I am not/will never take any credit on the profits made. All credit will always be given/mentioned to the handicappers that I specifically follow. I highly advise as well to look in to the handicappers mentioned above as they are not only smashing the bookies, but providing very helpful and knowledgeable information via Twitter.
I will get more into detail later on about specific trends as we get closer to September.
NCAAB:
-@Stuckey2 on all plays including his teasers
- Indian Cowboy "+" spreads only
NBA:
-@nbacrusher on NBA totals
- Indian Cowboy "+" spreads only
-@nropp
NHL:
-@Picks4Profit on NHL Totals
NCAAF:
NFL:
No handicappers set in stone yet for NCAAF or NFL; still working on that.
Handicappers I am keeping a sharp eye on:
@HeHaithMe: After hearing his podcast, I am very interested to see how well he'll do in the upcoming NFL season. Also a very sharp handicapper in MLB, not just because of his record, but really respect the lines that he plays for bases. I also highly advise everyone to listen to the podcast; his attitude and vision of the game is so refreshing and entertaining.
@Stuckey2: From what I remember, he mentioned NHL being his most profitable sport, I never tracked his plays down so I have insufficient data on this. But I do know hes very knowledgeable and insightful in hockey.
@behindthebets: Still looking into this for NBA.
@SportsCheetah: I've literally never seen someone pace this long on killing MLB/NBA wagers like he is right now. Defiantly keeping an eye out.
@OnTheMarkSport: Followed him last year on picks here and there on both NCAAF/NFL, needless to say, he saved my ass on a number of occasions. He may very well be the handicapper for me to follow for the upcoming season in football.
Make note that I am not/will never take any credit on the profits made. All credit will always be given/mentioned to the handicappers that I specifically follow. I highly advise as well to look in to the handicappers mentioned above as they are not only smashing the bookies, but providing very helpful and knowledgeable information via Twitter.
Thursday, 31 May 2012
The Harsh Reality of Sports Betting, And My Plan of Action.
The harsh reality of sports betting; hot streaks and cold streaks - or more so, hitting a wall and going through regression. My plan of action to reduce this was already explained in the previous post, but now I have real numbers to work with.
As many of you know, I hit the worst regression this week; losing two C3's and two C2's. It could of been worse, and I could of lost the TAM and OAK in a 3 game chase, at the same time, it could of been better and just went through losing the one official play which was LAD.
Losing these 4 series went from a 32% return to plummeting -24% return - a 56% loss out of those 4 series.
I started off hot going close to a 70% return, dropping to 17%, coming back up to a 32% and pacing well to all of the sudden hitting a brick wall and standing at -24%.
My plan now for the rest of the season is to reach a 20% ROI and call it quits. I'll still be giving out plays but once I reach that goal, I'm gonna be humble with having a profitable season (which I hope happens) and walk away with those gains.
I spent the last week backtracking how i've done in each sport that I bet and finally compiled the final numbers on the returns im looking for and WALKING AWAY once I reached these goals:
MLB: 25% (Using 1% of my BR on the RPI)
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI
I'm hoping these numbers fall through together. Keep in mind those numbers for MLB are for next season.
As many of you know, I hit the worst regression this week; losing two C3's and two C2's. It could of been worse, and I could of lost the TAM and OAK in a 3 game chase, at the same time, it could of been better and just went through losing the one official play which was LAD.
Losing these 4 series went from a 32% return to plummeting -24% return - a 56% loss out of those 4 series.
I started off hot going close to a 70% return, dropping to 17%, coming back up to a 32% and pacing well to all of the sudden hitting a brick wall and standing at -24%.
My plan now for the rest of the season is to reach a 20% ROI and call it quits. I'll still be giving out plays but once I reach that goal, I'm gonna be humble with having a profitable season (which I hope happens) and walk away with those gains.
I spent the last week backtracking how i've done in each sport that I bet and finally compiled the final numbers on the returns im looking for and WALKING AWAY once I reached these goals:
MLB: 25% (Using 1% of my BR on the RPI)
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI
TOTAL: 85% ROI
I'm hoping these numbers fall through together. Keep in mind those numbers for MLB are for next season.
Tuesday, 29 May 2012
Setting Realistic Goals
I was sitting outside with a few of my friends who happen to be very knowledgeable and successful within the stock market as they where listening to me vent at the huge margin of loss and bad streak that I went through in the past few weeks, going from 78% ROI to 17% in betting baseball. We started talking about the correlation of sports betting and the stock market - comparing yearly return on investments. I then brought up the question, “What yearly return on investment would you be happy with, in order to walk away satisfied every year?”. Both answered firmly, “20 percent.” I asked why and they merely said “Look at it this way, I double my investments in five years. Fives years.” In my head I started relating it to sports and thinking to myself how easy 20% was for me to reach and surpass. All of the sudden everything clicked in. What if you set realistic goals in the returns that you want by the end of the season, using previous data of your handicapping success to figure out a reasonable percentage.
For someone like me, I like to play across the board in almost every major sport (MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NFL, and NCAAF). Many good handicappers go through hot streaks, with most of their highest profit margin occurring early, or in the middle of the season. What everyone does face is regression. No matter how good of a handicapper you are, with every hot streak is a cold streak waiting right around the corner.
A good strategy that I have come up with is back tracking your record in each and every sport, looking at what your returns where and your highest and lowest return periods. Look at this way, I managed to get close to an 80% ROI in less than 2 months and all of the sudden I hit a few big bumps the past 3 weeks and lost over 60% of my profit returns. Am I ever going to surpass or even come merely close to 80% throughout the rest of the season? Who knows? If I knew this big regression was right around the corner, would I take the 80% and walk away for the rest of the season? Defiantly. A good strategy to avoid this would be to take a step back, look at your past record and yearly profit and set a reasonable return throughout the whole year. Than, look at each sport specifically and divide them so that they all total up to your yearly goal, giving a larger margin for sports that you have a better record in.
Example: Lets make this easy to understand and say your goal is to get 100% in return on your investment. In order, you find out your most profitable sports are MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NCAAF, and NFL. Therefore:
MLB: 40% ROI
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI
Once you’ve reached your goal stop wagering on the sport completely and be content with the profits. This automatically disciplines you from further exhausting your bankroll and from hitting any sort of regression along the way that can diminish your profits by the end of the season.
For someone like me, I like to play across the board in almost every major sport (MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NFL, and NCAAF). Many good handicappers go through hot streaks, with most of their highest profit margin occurring early, or in the middle of the season. What everyone does face is regression. No matter how good of a handicapper you are, with every hot streak is a cold streak waiting right around the corner.
A good strategy that I have come up with is back tracking your record in each and every sport, looking at what your returns where and your highest and lowest return periods. Look at this way, I managed to get close to an 80% ROI in less than 2 months and all of the sudden I hit a few big bumps the past 3 weeks and lost over 60% of my profit returns. Am I ever going to surpass or even come merely close to 80% throughout the rest of the season? Who knows? If I knew this big regression was right around the corner, would I take the 80% and walk away for the rest of the season? Defiantly. A good strategy to avoid this would be to take a step back, look at your past record and yearly profit and set a reasonable return throughout the whole year. Than, look at each sport specifically and divide them so that they all total up to your yearly goal, giving a larger margin for sports that you have a better record in.
Example: Lets make this easy to understand and say your goal is to get 100% in return on your investment. In order, you find out your most profitable sports are MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NCAAF, and NFL. Therefore:
MLB: 40% ROI
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI
Once you’ve reached your goal stop wagering on the sport completely and be content with the profits. This automatically disciplines you from further exhausting your bankroll and from hitting any sort of regression along the way that can diminish your profits by the end of the season.
Wednesday, 16 May 2012
5/16 RECAP
Went 7-2-0 +11.3 units.
MLB 5-2-0
NHL: 1-0-0
NBA: 1-0-0
All documentated at: http://www.wagerminds.com/Profile/TransparentBetting
MLB 5-2-0
NHL: 1-0-0
NBA: 1-0-0
All documentated at: http://www.wagerminds.com/Profile/TransparentBetting
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