The RPI Result In The Month Of May

(Data Taken from Covers) [plays are only for official RPI not my unofficial capped plays)

May RPI Record

3-May-12,A,Yankees,0.542,-130,V116,LOSS,

3-May-12,A,Toronto,0.56,119,V98,WIN,

4-May-12,B,Yankees,0.542,-160,V116,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Toronto,0.56,111,V98,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Texas,0.68,-143,V89,LOSS,

4-May-12,A,Tampa Bay,0.68,-180,H77,WIN,

4-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.68,-136,V71,LOSS,

5-May-12,B,Texas,0.68,-144,V77,WIN,

5-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.68,-130,V71,WIN,

10-May-12,A,Toronto,0.548,-138,V104,WIN,

11-May-12,A,Toronto,0.548,-128,V104,LOSS,

11-May-12,A,Texas,0.656,-141,H101,WIN,

11-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.645,-159,V57,WIN,

11-May-12,A,WhiteSox,0.469,-145,H63,WIN ,v1

12-May-12,B,Toronto,0.548,-136,V104,WIN ,

13-May-12,Z,Texas,0.656,-127,H101,WIN,

14-May-12,A,Texas,0.657,-180,H90,LOSS,

14-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.676,-147,H62,LOSS,

15-May-12,B,Texas,0.653,-220,H101,LOSS,

15-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.676,-119,H62,WIN,

16-May-12,C,Texas,0.653,-227,H101,WIN,

16-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.676,-105,H62,LOSS,

17-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.676,116,H62,WIN,

21-May-12,A,Yankees,0.525,-157,H52,LOSS,

21-May-12,A,Miami,0.503,-155,H34,WIN,

21-May-12,A,Baltimore,0.545,102,H48,LOSS,

22-May-12,B,Yankees,0.525,-169,H52,WIN,

22-May-12,B,Baltimore,0.545,107,H48,WIN,

24-May-12,A,Mets,0.522,-136,H56,LOSS,

25-May-12,B,Mets,0.522,-113,H56,WIN,

25-May-12,A,Cincinnati,0.517,-154,H48,LOSS,

25-May-12,A,Baltimore,0.545,-123,H73,WIN,

26-May-12,B,Cincinnati,0.517,-147,H48,WIN,

28-May-12,A,Dodgers,0.52,-106,H40,LOSS,

29-May-12,B,Dodgers,0.52,-138,H40,LOSS,

30-May-12,C,Dodgers,0.52,-156,H40,LOSS,

A = 9 B = 9 C = 1 SERIES 19 - 1

Looking at this data, "A" games hit under 50%. Because there has been a series loss, you actually would have been a lot more profitable playing just B/C games rather than the whole 3 game chase. Perhaps its more beneficial to play it like this throughout the rest of the season. I remember last year during the month of May-July, the RPI was hitting at a high percentage of "A" games but it seems that this hasn't been the case as of late.

I'll start playing only B/C if this trend continues with the exception of finding great value/edge on an "A" game.

OR

Chase A/B games and only bet 1x (or whatever your initial wager size is in the first place) on C games.

With the May record, assuming the average line of each is -200, if you were betting each series to win 1x and chased every game, you would be down approximately 5 units. Chasing A/B games and only wagering 1x on C games to cushion some losses - you would find yourself up over 3 units.

Something to keep in mind as making adjustments throughout the course of the season is key to long term success in profiting.