I was sitting outside with a few of my friends who happen to be very knowledgeable and successful within the stock market as they where listening to me vent at the huge margin of loss and bad streak that I went through in the past few weeks, going from 78% ROI to 17% in betting baseball. We started talking about the correlation of sports betting and the stock market - comparing yearly return on investments. I then brought up the question, “What yearly return on investment would you be happy with, in order to walk away satisfied every year?”. Both answered firmly, “20 percent.” I asked why and they merely said “Look at it this way, I double my investments in five years. Fives years.” In my head I started relating it to sports and thinking to myself how easy 20% was for me to reach and surpass. All of the sudden everything clicked in. What if you set realistic goals in the returns that you want by the end of the season, using previous data of your handicapping success to figure out a reasonable percentage.
For someone like me, I like to play across the board in almost every major sport (MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NFL, and NCAAF). Many good handicappers go through hot streaks, with most of their highest profit margin occurring early, or in the middle of the season. What everyone does face is regression. No matter how good of a handicapper you are, with every hot streak is a cold streak waiting right around the corner.
A good strategy that I have come up with is back tracking your record in each and every sport, looking at what your returns where and your highest and lowest return periods. Look at this way, I managed to get close to an 80% ROI in less than 2 months and all of the sudden I hit a few big bumps the past 3 weeks and lost over 60% of my profit returns. Am I ever going to surpass or even come merely close to 80% throughout the rest of the season? Who knows? If I knew this big regression was right around the corner, would I take the 80% and walk away for the rest of the season? Defiantly. A good strategy to avoid this would be to take a step back, look at your past record and yearly profit and set a reasonable return throughout the whole year. Than, look at each sport specifically and divide them so that they all total up to your yearly goal, giving a larger margin for sports that you have a better record in.
Example: Lets make this easy to understand and say your goal is to get 100% in return on your investment. In order, you find out your most profitable sports are MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NCAAF, and NFL. Therefore:
MLB: 40% ROI
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI
Once you’ve reached your goal stop wagering on the sport completely and be content with the profits. This automatically disciplines you from further exhausting your bankroll and from hitting any sort of regression along the way that can diminish your profits by the end of the season.
For someone like me, I like to play across the board in almost every major sport (MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NFL, and NCAAF). Many good handicappers go through hot streaks, with most of their highest profit margin occurring early, or in the middle of the season. What everyone does face is regression. No matter how good of a handicapper you are, with every hot streak is a cold streak waiting right around the corner.
A good strategy that I have come up with is back tracking your record in each and every sport, looking at what your returns where and your highest and lowest return periods. Look at this way, I managed to get close to an 80% ROI in less than 2 months and all of the sudden I hit a few big bumps the past 3 weeks and lost over 60% of my profit returns. Am I ever going to surpass or even come merely close to 80% throughout the rest of the season? Who knows? If I knew this big regression was right around the corner, would I take the 80% and walk away for the rest of the season? Defiantly. A good strategy to avoid this would be to take a step back, look at your past record and yearly profit and set a reasonable return throughout the whole year. Than, look at each sport specifically and divide them so that they all total up to your yearly goal, giving a larger margin for sports that you have a better record in.
Example: Lets make this easy to understand and say your goal is to get 100% in return on your investment. In order, you find out your most profitable sports are MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NCAAF, and NFL. Therefore:
MLB: 40% ROI
NCAAB: 25% ROI
NHL: 15% ROI
NBA: 10% ROI
NFL: 5% ROI
NCAAF: 5% ROI
Once you’ve reached your goal stop wagering on the sport completely and be content with the profits. This automatically disciplines you from further exhausting your bankroll and from hitting any sort of regression along the way that can diminish your profits by the end of the season.
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