How Do I Bet NFL and NCAAB?

I'm willing to admit that I am terrible at betting both these sports. The NFL is easily my worst sport because I can't get over the hump of creating biased opinions on teams to win. No matter how much effort put in, my last remaining decision on a spread or total is based on gut feeling, whether I realized it at the time or not. One way to see if you have strong opinions from a sports fan perspective is the money management involved. If you're not a flat bettor, you should keep track of all of your bets on a spreadsheet and calculate the percentage of wins categorized by your wager.  Although I HIGHLY recommend to flat bet. 

Example:

1x: 20/30

2x: 10/17

3x: 2/9

Here is the classic term "if its too good to be true, it probably is". A lot of people that track their own plays will realize that their biggest losses are from their biggest wagers. Now as untrue as this sounds, its defiantly right on many levels - but not to say that this applies to every handicapper. I have seen a small handful of cappers do very well on large plays. You see many touts advertise that their biggest plays are hitting 90%, etc, but for the most part, its all just lies and gimmicks to persuade customers. 

So what do you do?

Well, the smart decision would just be to not bet the sport, but as many of us know, thats easier said than done. However, the way I see it is relative to how people go about's in the first step of investing in the stock market in a sense that you back track a company's performance record and see where the strengths and weaknesses are. Many people that tail cappers are too lazy to put the work in to really understand trends in the handicapper that they are putting their money into. 

For me, I compile a list of a small handful of well respected handicappers with a reputable long term record. The record, obviously is the first thing I look at. For me, I could care less about their profit margin, I instead look at the lines they're playing at. 

Lets take for example HeHaithMe (@HeHaithMe ). He currently holds a MLB record of 86-59-6 (59%) which is outstanding. I've seen others that hold a 60% record as well. Why aren't I mentioning them? Because their wins are from plays that can range anywhere between (-170) to (-240), while HeHaithMe has gained my absolute respect as he has wagered over 150 games and wagering games no more than lines surpassing (-125). 

Now, the next thing which is what took me a while to master, is knowing when to fade/tail/or lay off. This is where this blog and my Twitter becomes handy. I compiled a spreadsheet of handicappers, knowing when to lay off when they are on a cold streak, bets to avoid depending on unit size, and teams that they have a bias on. 

I will explain in more further detail as we get closer to next season.